Theo Epstein And The Jim Duquette Effect

Let's talk about the Mets. Or fantasy baseball. Because the Red Sox are impossible to watch these days.

I think the Kazmir-Zambrano trade has left a lot of GMs pissing in their pants. For Duquette, it was a Grady Little-esque move. The guy was a serviceable GM till then, but once he made that trade, it cemented his reputation with the likes of Kevin Malone and Steve Phillips. And now, it seems like every GM in the league is afraid of losing good young talent for a mediocre established player.

But hey, sometimes, you gotta take the risks. And sometimes, you've gotta filter out the scrubs from the future stars. Look at what Stick Michael did as Yankees GM. He made a lot of trades for mediocre veterans like Melido Perez, Terry Mulholland, and Xavier Hernandez. Sure, those guys never really contributed much, but aside from J.T. Snow (who turned out to be a good fielder, but a below-average bat), would you recognize the other names they gave up? Domingo Jean? Bobby Munoz? Ryan Karp? Jerry Nielsen?

I remember when the Yanks traded for Cecil Fielder in '96. At the time, I was ticked that they gave up a young pitcher named Matt Drews. The guy was putting up great numbers in Columbus. And now, he's nothing. Everyone criticized the Yanks for trading Brandon Claussen for Aaron Boone in '03. Claussen's numbers this year? 3-8, 6.19. Looks like the Yanks still have had the better end of that deal.

To me, Epstein's performance this year takes him out of the upper echelon of GMs, takes him away from the likes of Beane, Kenny Williams, Schuerholz, and arguably Ned Coletti. He's above average, but no longer "great."

If Delcarmen, Hansen, and Lester turn into Mulder, Hudson, and Zito, then perhaps we can put Epstein back into that category. But if those three turn into Jeff Johnson, Scott Kamienecki, and Wade Taylor, then Epstein will have '04 to talk about, and not a whole lot more. When your big midseason acquisition is Jason Johnson, you can't really tell me you're playing to win this year. Epstein is trying to win in '06, '07, and '08. And only time will tell if his approach will be successful.

Defending The Indefensible

Been very busy lately, so that's why I haven't blogged recently. And the way things have gone, good thing I was busy; thinking too much about baseball would've been too annoying.

On my way to a much-needed weekend getaway, I was listening to Chris Russo talk to Yankee fans trying to defend the richest baseball team getting even richer.

"Because the Yankees are in New York, they deserve the highest payroll." What's so great about New York? Stupidity.

"When you wear a Yankees cap in Europe, everyone knows what it is. You can't say that about a Tampa Bay cap." And therefore we should say to hell with competitive balance and to hell with a team that can't generate a fraction of the revenue that the Yankees-YES juggernaut does?

"Why is it any different than Exxon-Mobil making tons of money?" Comparing sports and real life? Gimme a break. Life isn't fair. But games should be fair.

"They're playing within the rules." As I pointed out on this blog a few months ago, and as Russo said the other day, NY Giants owner Wellington Mara did what was good for the game by sharing his revenues with other teams. If not for Mara, the Green Bay Packers would be in the same straits as their baseball counterpart, the Milwaukee Brewers, losing year after year and being unable to sign good players due to small market constraints (if the Brewers had the Yankees payroll, you think they would've traded Carlos Lee?).

"Because of football's salary cap, you have mediocre Super Bowl champs." Baseball isn't much better, since the advent of the wild card. The best team in recent vintage, the '01 Mariners, won 116 games, but very few people outside of Seattle care to remember. A lot of wild card teams (like the '03 Marlins) had the fortune of getting hot at the right time and thus being able to win it all. Were the '03 Marlins baseball's best team in the regular season? Far from it.

"And salary caps prevent teams from putting together dynasties." As Russo pointed out, how about the Pats winning the Super Bowl 3 of 4 years?

-- And don't talk to me about the Red Sox. They're in a different league. And if the Yankees' payroll was only $10 million more than the Red Sox, I wouldn't say a word. When the Yanks won it all in '98, it didn't bother me. They didn't spend over $85 million (more than most teams' payrolls) than the second-best club.

The fact that the Sox can spend millions more than the Royals or Marlins bothers me, and I agree that the system needs to be fixed. But at least their payroll is not a gross aberration. The Yanks' payroll, especially with the addition of Abreu, is.

- So let the Yankee fans celebrate as their team buys another pennant. If I had that money, I can do the same thing.

Great Blog Post on Sterling

I found a hilarious piece on another blog documenting the worst broadcaster in the game, John Sterling. THIS, my friends, is funny stuff. And coming from a Yankee fan, mind you! When even the Yankee fans start hating Sterling, you know the guy's really gone downhill.

Memo To Brian Cashman: Reverse The Curse

Hey Brian,

I hope 2006 is treating you well, as you enjoy your newfound control. With Sidney Ponson and Aaron Guiel as your big midseason acquisitions, you've stuck it to George pretty well. After all, if he had his way, he'd have put Reggie Sanders and Bobby Abreu in pinstripes long, long ago, while Phil Hughes would be rising through the Phillies' system.

I have a trade idea for you. It's a big deal, a huge one. One like you've done once before. It's like a trade you made that sent shockwaves across the country.

Trade A-Rod for Soriano. Just like in February 2004, but in reverse. Maybe you can give up Cano for Ryan Zimmerman, so you can have someone play third. Or maybe Frank Robinson will move A-Rod back to short, instead of using the erratic Felipe Lopez. And lock up Soriano long-term. The guy is still a potential 40-40 guy. For '07, you can even use him in LF and move Shemp to right.

Sure, you'll have to eat a ton of A-Rod's salary. But it's worth it. It's worth it before he turns into another Whitson, Knoblauch, Brown, Mondesi, and Pavano all rolled into one. Before you're truly desparate to get rid of the guy. Do it while his value's still up.

Besides, unlike the A-Schmuck, Sori can actually perform in October. If not for Mariano's implosion in '01, Sori's HR in game 7 of the '01 WS would've been one of the greatest shots in Yankee history, up there with moments like Leyritz, Reggie, etc. Instead, that 2-1 lead going into the 9th was the last happy moment for your club.

And we all know where A-Rod performs best: in last place! Thus, Washington would be a perfect fit. And Jim Bowden loves a splash, especially one that will grab away a whole bunch of Orioles fans. I'm sure he'd do the deal in a heartbeat.

And maybe this time, A-Rod for Soriano will work in your favor.

I hope you get to play lots of golf this October,
Manny Ortiz

Big Series Win For Jays

I was worried about this series. After the whole Shea Hillebrand fiasco, I thought there would be a Jason Grimsley-esque effect on Toronto. Arizona couldn't win for about 2 weeks after that, and I was thoroughly expecting the Yanks to kick butt this weekend. But after Vernon Wells' walkoff shot off Charlie Brown, you knew Toronto was gonna survive. And survive they did.

They took full advantage of the weak Yankee pitching, teeing off of Jaret Wright, Ponson, and Kris Wilson. So far, Ponson is not looking like a Cashman genius move. Too bad the Sox stunk it up against Seattle.

- Great piece on Buster Olney's ESPN blog, comparing A-Rod's struggles to those of Chuck Knoblauch. I think in a year or two from now, the Yanks will try to trade away A-Rod. The guy clearly is unhappy in New York, and the Yanks may have to eat a lot of salary, but things are getting worse and worse for the A-Schmuck. Reggie Jackson he isn't.

- And with Wakefield now on the DL, the Red Sox have also had their fair share of injuries. I don't want to hear Yankee fans making excuses. The Sox have had Wells, Clement, and now Wakefield on the shelf. Not to mention Crisp and Wily Mo Pena missing significant amounts of team, as well as Foulke and Timlin serving stints on the DL. I'll concede that the Yanks' injuries had more of an impact, but the way some Yankee fans complain, you'd think all 25 players on the Red Sox roster were healthy. Come on.

Damn!

Tough past few days for a Yankee despiser. That sweep of the White Sox was painful to watch. And all the while, the Red Sox lead evaporated.

The last thing I need to hear is how well the Yanks are doing in spite of the injuries. Hey, without Shemp and Sheff, they actually have some guys that can do the little things right and hit half-decently in the clutch. Maybe that's why they've done so well lately.

But it's still July, so I won't worry. Remember last year, when the White Sox nearly blew it all in September? Then they dominated in October. There's still time yet for both Sox teams to pull ahead and for the Yanks to fold.

Ponson: Redding or Small?

A year after Redding/May/Small/Chacon, the Yanks are looking for lightning in a bottle once again, this time in the form of oft-troubled Sidney Ponson. I think George was involved in this one. After all, the guy loves people will screwed-up personal lives, like Darryl and Doc.

I can't see how Ponson will do too well. He sucked in the NL, even with a great pitching coach. He reminds me of Mondesi, a guy who often doesn't seem to care about the game. And then he screwed up in a big spot with the Giants a few years back.

One good thing: he makes the Yanks exciting. How long till his first DUI in pinstripes?

Ponson: Redding or Small?

A year after Redding/May/Small/Chacon, the Yanks are looking for lightning in a bottle once again, this time in the form of oft-troubled Sidney Ponson. I think George was involved in this one. After all, the guy loves people will screwed-up personal lives, like Darryl and Doc.

I can't see how Ponson will do too well. He sucked in the NL, even with a great pitching coach. He reminds me of Mondesi, a guy who often doesn't seem to care about the game. And then he screwed up in a big spot with the Giants a few years back.

One good thing: he makes the Yanks exciting. How long till his first DUI in pinstripes?

Yankees At The Half

'06 is looking like a great year thus far, especially with the Yanks primed to miss the playoffs if the season ended tomorrow. But of course, we've gotta play all 162.

The hatred and enmity against the Yankees seems to be missing some bite this year. Maybe it's the fact that Shemp and Sheff are on the DL. Or Small and Chacon reverting to their old ways. Plus, the Yanks have very little personality to begin with, but this year they seem extra dull. The Boss and Snorre have been much, much quieter than usual. At least last year the Boss got mad every week, and found every opportunity to tweak Ca$hman. And the emergence of the exciting Mets? Also a huge factor.

Now, what should we expect from the Yanks in the second half?

I think one big x-factor will be if and when George steps in. Clearly, Ca$hman has been running things for now. Otherwise, I'm sure we'd long since have seen Reggie Sanders in pinstripes, and probably Bobby Abreu, too.

Seems to me like Cashman has two ways of dealing with issues like injuries: a) the farm system - bring up the Kevin Thompson and TJ Beam types, and hope for the best, or b) rely on your local ex-Royal. Heck, Cashman likes ex-Royals more than Steinbrenner likes ex-Mets! First Terrence Long, then Guiel and Kris Wilson - what's next, Frank White as the new first-base coach?

So I'd be surprised if Cashman makes a big splash before the deadline, unless he gets an offer he can't refuse, like with Mondesi in '02 (but that, of course, turned out to be a disaster and was almost definitely a George move, coming after Enrique Wilson's infamous error against the Mets). I think Cashman will try to push his luck again and look for the 2006 version of Small and Chacon. Chances are he'll end up with something more like Redding and Darrell May.

Yanks have a tough schedule coming up. They play the White Sox, the resurgent Mariners, and later on, Texas and then Detroit. Boston will give them a hard time, too. Unfortunately, thanks to the chemically imbalanced schedule, the Yanks play Baltimore and Tampa Bay about 100 times the rest of the way. Hopefully they'll be seeing a lot of Kazmir and Bedard.

Boston needs a big second half from Beckett. He was inconsistent for much of the first half, but before getting lit up by the White Sox, had pitched 5 quality starts in a row. Is he finally figuring out the AL? If he, Schilling, and Lester can keep things up, and Mirabelli can work some magic with Wakefield, the Sox will be in great shape.

And I would also like the Twins to get hot, just in case Detroit starts stinking it up. But if Santana has another huge second half and Liriano stays red-hot, Minnesota will have an excellent chance at the wild card.

Another Yankee-Hater Classic

When it comes time to list the top 10 Yankee-hater moments of '06, last night's game has to be up there. Shawn Chacon pitched like he was back in Coors Field, and the Yanks' revolving door of relievers didn't do much better. I didn't think the Indians would be going for the sweep tonight, but wouldn't that be sweet.

Unfortunately, Tampa Bay is in the same situation. Kazmir did what he does best, killing the Red Sox. And the Sox stunk it up again last night. At least with the Yanks' struggles, the Sox haven't lost any ground in the East.

4 Up and Counting

After 1978, it's impossible to get excited about a Red Sox division lead in July, unless they're 20 games up. But they're 4 up, and have a chance to gain a big lead over the weekend.

The Yanks play the NL's top team, the Mets, over the weekend. Boston has a chance to extend its winning streak, playing Florida and then TB. This can get good, very good.

End of Two Eras?

With the Yankees-Atlanta series in full swing, I've officially started thinking about a Yankee-free October.

It will take a miracle for the Braves to make the postseason this year. The Mets are red-hot, the Phillies are a decent team, and even the Marlins have proven that they're not a $15 million pushover. So the Braves find themselves in a pretty competitive division. Very hard to imagine an October without them, but with the season almost halfway done, they've got almost no shot.

The Yanks are still within striking distance, but this year looks a lot different from years past. First of course is the injury factor, with the Yanks missing so many players and having no bench or farm system. Second, for the first time ever, it looks like the wild card will come out of the AL Central. Detroit has been so hot for so long that everyone is taking them seriously. And the White Sox are as good as ever. Unless the Tigers collapse, chances are both teams are going to October. That would mean that this year would be the first year without both Boston and New York in the postseason since 2002.

- Gotta love how the Red Sox have been playing lately. The Mets series is a big test; if they can beat them 2 out of three, I'll be thrilled.

Hard to take the Yanks-Marlins and Yanks-Braves too seriously. The Yanks are playing two bad teams. It was cool seeing Yankee Stadium empty on Sunday night. I know, I know, it was a makeup game, but with New York turning into Mets town, the Yanks better get used to it.

Mussina's Lousy, Junkees Still Win

Well, it was one of those nights. But back to the Moose. He's becoming the Melky Cabrera of pitchers. Back on May 31st he handily beat the Tigers 6-1 and led the league in ERA and all over talk radio it was declared - the Moose is back! We haven't seen him this effective in years!

Fast forward four starts:

Red Sox: 4 ER in 6 IP
Oakland: 3 ER in 7 IP (not horrible)
Cleveland: 6 ER in 5.2 IP
Phillies: 5 ER in 5 IP

Works out to an ERA of 6.85.

If the "ace" of your staff is pitching as such, forget it. You're sunk.

Give props to the Junkee offense - yes, Arthur Rhodes is 100 years old, but they got it done, and kept pace with Boston, who looks like they have a better chance THIS YEAR to dethrone the Yanks than last year.

And with the Tigers and White Sox doing great, the wild card is no sure thing.

Melky's June Swoon Continues

After an 0-5 night, Melky Cabrera is now batting .169 this month. Now you might say, so what, his OBP is high. True, his .308 June OBP is not horrible, but come on. That's stretching it a little. Take a look at his slugging percentage. For June, it's .231. Of his 11 June hits, only two have been extra bases - one homer, and one double. And his seasonal slugging average is only .313. I'm sorry, that is just not getting it done, especially if you're a corner outfielder. If you're Omar Vizquel maybe, but .313 slugging is horrendous.

Another Beautiful Night for Farnsworthless and the Junkees

What can I say? I didn't expect a Phillie win and a Junkee loss on Monday night. I turned on YES to see that Abreu and Howard were not in the lineup against Randy (because RJ has allowed only one lefty homerun this season, and that was to Mark Kotsay), and yet, the Phils take this one 4-2.

RJ was better than I thought he'd be in the bandbox, actually pitching decently. And the Yankees drew six walks, outhit the Phils, so on paper, it looked like an easy one for Old York. But it wasn't to be, as they squandered one opportunity after another.

So RJ lowers his ERA to 5.21, Farnsworthless is now at 4.70 after his wild pitch strikeout allows an insurance run to score (not to mention two walks prior), and I know the fans are going to cry injury. Hey, you know what? If the guy can't pitch, DL him! But once he's out there, I don't want to hear it.

So now Snorre is starting to realize that Farnsworthless is no good in a big spot, so watch him come in during the 8-0 blowouts.

Anyway, Red Sox win, Yankees lose, Yankees are two games out of first.

Yankees Get Ousted Out of First

Man oh man, could the weekend have been better? Maybe had the Nationals beaten Old York on Friday, but Saturday and Sunday were incredible wins, the kind we'll be looking back on many months from now.

First, Alfonso Soriano. What a job he did stealing second, stealing third, and coming home on Ringo's throwing error to tie the game. Charlie Brown blew it! Boy, those throws by Ringo - reminded me of Mike Piazza with the Mets....

And Sunday had the making of a here-we-go-again game until Wang coughed up a game winning homer to Ryan Zimmerman.

These past two games were the types of games the Yankees used to win for so many years.

I must say, I am a little jealous, though, because Manny's prediction came true before mine did. He predicted that Aaron Small would be selling cars come July, and I said that Shawn Chacon would be out of the rotation by June. Well, if not for the DL, there's a good chance I'd be right, too, but here's where I think Ca$hman really blew it - he should have put Small in the rotation. Who knows - maybe he's better starting than he is coming out of the pen. I guess we'll never know.

- I know Boston swept the Braves, thus overtaking first place, but the Red Sox pitching is just lousy. I'm not going to sit here and be arrogant (after all, I'm not a Yankee fan) and say that hey, the BoSox are the team to beat. But a win is a win, a loss is a loss, and second place is second place.

SITYS! The Aaron Small Era Is Over!

Back in April, I wrote a post listing my predictions for the year. Up there on the list? Aaron Small, everyone's favorite Yankee from '05, would be gone by the All-Star break.

Well, as usual, I was right! Small was designated for assignment yesterday. Earlier this year, one of my Yankee fan buddies called Small his favorite Yankee. Tough year for these guys. First, Sturtze goes down for the year, and now this. And with Melky in a slump, who's gonna be the latest Yankee cult favorite? T.J. Beam?

SITYS!!!

2006: The Summer of the Mets

Whenever the Yankees put together a few good wins, I get paranoid and think that they're not going to lose for the rest of the season. I guess in that sense I'm just as delusional as the Junkee fans who thought that back in '03, after their 18-3 start, they'd win 120-130 games.

And then comes a game like Thursday's, where we think it's a lock with ace Mike Mussina going against a pitiful Indians offense and presto! The Moose stinks, A-Schmuck strikes out in a big spot, and I can finally relax. Nice.

Then you look at the Mets, and they're dominating right now, and after sweeping the Phillies, they're pretty much a lock to win the NL East.

At this point, you don't know that the Junkees will even make the playoffs, especially now that Toronto is right there. Watch George panic. Prediction: Royals trade Reggie Sanders to the Royals for Phillip Hughes.

Can We Get Rid of Julian Tavarez, Please?

Nice win by the Junkees behind Wang and Charlie Brown. Ump had a big strike zone, but anyway....

The Red Sox signed Tavarez, and he's been awful. Every time I watch Baseball Tonight and I see him in there I know it's a bad sign. Yes he's a power pitcher, but come on. With his 5.83 ERA, he ought to be in there only in 8-0 blowouts. Comes in last night with a 2-1 and can't shut the door. Gives up a grand slam and goodbye sole possession of first place.

You can't tell me that you'd do worse with a guy from AAA. You might not do better, but you won't do worse.

The Good, the Great, and the Awesome from This Past Weekend

My oh my, what a difference a few days makes. After beating Boston 2-1 on Tuesday, I was depressed. I thought, man, they're getting tough to beat. They seem to have worked out their kinks from earlier in the season, and now it's here we go again.

Well, not so fast.

The good: The Yankee starters. Chacon allowed 3 ERs in 5, which I know the Junkee fans are going to say is good, but his ERA is 5.23, which proves that my prediction may be true - that he'll be out of the rotation by June. Mussina is not invincible, as he allows 3 ER is 7, and Randy Johnson has proven that his start against Detroit was a fluke. Finally, Jaret Wright allows 4 in 5 on Thursday, bumping up his ERA to 4.44.

The great: The Junkee bullpen. Snorre's boyfriend Proctor has been hideous. Snorre likes to take a pitcher, use him a hundred times a season thereby blowing out his arm (see Tanyon Sturtze and Steve Karsay for more details), and Proctor has been in there way too much. Farnsworthless is just a pleasure to watch, allowing 29 hits and 18 walks in 29 innings, and now we're seeing some clowns from AAA trying to get the job done.

The awesome: The Junkees in the clutch. They're getting guys on base but not bringing them home. I realize that the Sabermaticians will say that it's all luck, and at the end of the day everything will even out, but a loss is a loss, a losing streak is a losing streak, and that's what they've got on their hands.

Remember when Melky was hitting .328 back on May 30th? Since then he's 8 for 39 with zero homers, which is a .205 batting average. Have the pitchers figured him out? We'll see.

The Junkees face the Indians on Tuesday. Now would be a good time for George to panic and go get a slugger. Prediction: Jeromy Burnitz starts in right field on Tueday.