Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Who's Staying, Who's Going

This is easily the most fascinating Yankee offseason in recent memory. Lots of big names are free agents, and this team might have a very different look next spring. Here are my picks and analysis for where some of the big names will end up:


Why he’ll go – you know Boras will opt out. He’s looking for a situation where he can get a bunch of bidders out there to drive A-Rod’s price as high as it can possibly get. Even if the Yanks offer $30 million a year, A-Rod’s going to test the waters. George would give the guy $50 million a year to stay in town, but if Cashman has his way, once A-Rod opts out, he’ll no longer be a Yankee. I also think Arte Moreno will be willing to pay whatever it takes to make A-Rod an Angel.

Prediction: Angels

Jorge Posada

Why he’ll go – I don’t see George pushing to keep the guy, and I can’t see Cashman being interested in spending over $10 million a year on a catcher in his upper 30’s. I know Posada had a career year this year, but he looked spent in October and is due for a big decline next year. Cashman wants to get younger, and I can see him using Molina or making a trade to fill the role. The PR factor will be too much to resist for Omar Minaya and Co.

Prediction: Mets

Mariano Rivera

He’s pissed about the Yankees waiting to re-sign him, and doesn’t seem very interested in returning. I think he’d definitely stay if Torre stuck around. Of course, Torre is likely out, so whoever the replacement is might be a big x-factor here. The Yanks will probably be willing to pay top dollar for him, and that will, of course, be the biggest factor in his decision.

Prediction: Yankees

Andy Pettitte

No Clemens and no Torre means he’ll probably want out of New York. Does he want to go back to Houston? Hard to imagine, because that team is not a contender. I think he’ll either go back to the Yanks or call it a career.

Prediction: Retirement

Bobby Abreu

Yanks will spend whatever they have to in order to bring the guy back. He scored points with that shot off Borowski in Game 4, and is a huge asset in wearing down opposing pitchers. Only other factor would be if the Yankees pursue Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones. Would they shift Melky to right? Put him back on the bench? The Yanks surprised everyone by getting Damon a couple of years ago, so I wouldn’t be surprised if one of those two (or Aaron Rowand) ends up in pinstripes.

Prediction: Yankees

Luis Vizcaino

Because Edwar Ramirez and Ross Ohlendorf stunk, they’ve gotta bring this guy back. He’ll get overpaid, but that’s hardly a surprise.

Prediction: Yankees

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