1978 Will Not Happen in 2007

The Junkee fans like to get excited and delude themselves into thinking thst they can easily come back from a 13 game deficit. After all, they say, it happened in 1978, so why not this year?

Here's why. To have a 1978, two things have to happen: (a) The Red Sox play lousy baseball; and (b) The Junkees play incredible baseball. You could have either (a) or (b), but the likelihood of having (a) AND (b) is slim.

The Junkees could go on a tear, but it's a lot harder now than it was in 1978. Back then, you had two teams in their second year of expansion, the Blue Jays and the Mariners, with both teams losing over 100 games. This year, maybe you'll have one in the Royals, or even the Rangers, but Old York doesn't play them as often as they used to. Instead, they play half their games against the AL East, and none of the teams is an easy win.

Also, the Yankees had a dominating ace in Ron Guidry, who had one of the all-time seasons for pitchers, going 25-3 with a 1.74 ERA. Overall the Junkees led the AL in ERA and were second in strikeouts. This year, props to Andy Pettitte for doing a great job so far, but no one else has been any good. You've gotten decent starts here and there, but so many times Snorre has had to pull pitchers before the fifth inning, and you don't stage a 14 game comeback with guys like Mike Mussina and Kei Igawa. Right now the Junkees are tenth in ERA, and dead last in K's. Oh, and they've also issued the third most walks. Meanwhile, Boston is third in ERA, fourth in K's, and only two teams have issued fewer walks in the AL.

I'm not saying it can't happen. I won't rest until Snorre and company are mathematically out of it. Just realize that they really have their work cut out for them.