1978 Will Not Happen in 2007

The Junkee fans like to get excited and delude themselves into thinking thst they can easily come back from a 13 game deficit. After all, they say, it happened in 1978, so why not this year?

Here's why. To have a 1978, two things have to happen: (a) The Red Sox play lousy baseball; and (b) The Junkees play incredible baseball. You could have either (a) or (b), but the likelihood of having (a) AND (b) is slim.

The Junkees could go on a tear, but it's a lot harder now than it was in 1978. Back then, you had two teams in their second year of expansion, the Blue Jays and the Mariners, with both teams losing over 100 games. This year, maybe you'll have one in the Royals, or even the Rangers, but Old York doesn't play them as often as they used to. Instead, they play half their games against the AL East, and none of the teams is an easy win.

Also, the Yankees had a dominating ace in Ron Guidry, who had one of the all-time seasons for pitchers, going 25-3 with a 1.74 ERA. Overall the Junkees led the AL in ERA and were second in strikeouts. This year, props to Andy Pettitte for doing a great job so far, but no one else has been any good. You've gotten decent starts here and there, but so many times Snorre has had to pull pitchers before the fifth inning, and you don't stage a 14 game comeback with guys like Mike Mussina and Kei Igawa. Right now the Junkees are tenth in ERA, and dead last in K's. Oh, and they've also issued the third most walks. Meanwhile, Boston is third in ERA, fourth in K's, and only two teams have issued fewer walks in the AL.

I'm not saying it can't happen. I won't rest until Snorre and company are mathematically out of it. Just realize that they really have their work cut out for them.

Rocket a Yankee? Not Surprising

I'm pissed about Clemens coming back to New York. Pissed, but not surprised.

You knew Houston wasn't going to happen. That team doesn't have what it takes to contend, especially if Milwaukee and the Cubs stay hot. Besides, the Astros weren't gonna pay nearly as much as the AL East teams.

And Boston, too, had no reason to shell out $28 million. They're already on the hook for Dice-K (posting fee and salary), and with Beckett, Schilling, and Wakefield doing well, they don't have a need for Clemens. And Jon Lester should be back at Fenway soon.

Throw in the Pettitte factor, and you had to figure Clemens would be back. So much for Ca$hman's youth movement.

What I'm afraid of is that this move will have the same impact as the Abreu move; a move that can galvanize the team and get them to go on a tear. And unfortunately, it wouldn't surprise me if that were the case. If Clemens can still get the job done, and Mussina, Pettitte, and Wang can keep pitching well, the Yankees rotation suddenly looks like one of the best in the league. And if Hughes comes back and pitches like he did against Texas? Not good.

The big x-factor in Clemens' case? He hasn't pitched in the AL since '03. And every team in the East can hit. I don't think it'll be a disaster as it was with, say, Javier Vazquez, but his ERA will probably go up at least a run.

One more thing to keep in mind: in the '05 WS, his hamstring acted up, and helped ruin the Astros' chances. I know he's famous for his crazy workout routines, but the guy is 45. There's no guarantee that the Yankees can call on him when they'll need him most.